Market
Closes in 200d
Closes in 200d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 24h volume
- $191,455.28
- Book depth
- $539,795.38
- Implied yes
- 15.5%
- 7d change
- -1.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 15.0¢ / 16.0¢
- Spread
- 1.0¢
- Min size
- 5
- Tick size
- 1.00¢
Yes price · 7 day
▼ 1.0¢
YES15.5%
15.5¢
▼ 1.0¢ · 7d
NO84.5%
84.5¢
▲ 1.0¢ · 7d
Order book · YESLive
23.0¢800$184.00
22.0¢6962$1,531.64
21.0¢8257.83$1,734.14
20.0¢9585.04$1,917.01
19.0¢5216.6$991.15
18.0¢34322.67$6,178.08
17.0¢54022.72$9,183.86
16.0¢152397.57$24,383.61
mid 15.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
15.0¢20743.35$3,111.50
14.0¢74733.47$10,462.69
13.0¢633749.22$82,387.40
12.0¢10505.24$1,260.63
11.0¢41460.52$4,560.66
10.0¢30842.22$3,084.22
9.0¢42233.11$3,800.98
8.0¢127921.28$10,233.70
Polymarket CLOB · $539,795.38 depthrefresh 4s
Tape24h $191,455.28
NO588.23 @ 85.0¢15m ago
NO2.11 @ 84.0¢30m ago
YES700 @ 16.0¢36m ago
YES15 @ 15.0¢54m ago
YES12 @ 16.0¢1h ago
YES500 @ 15.0¢1h ago
NO0.07 @ 84.0¢1h ago
NO0.06 @ 84.0¢1h ago
YES1923.08 @ 15.0¢1h ago
NO0.02 @ 84.0¢1h ago
Method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AlphaMarket displays live Polymarket Gamma, CLOB, and Data API market data without synthetic market fallbacks. Orders route through the underlying on-chain exchange when live execution is enabled. Current execution mode: local ledger only; market data remains Polymarket-live.
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